By Steven V. Roberts

A recent cartoon in The New Yorker depicts a gloomy pair of campaign workers surrounded by posters urging people to vote. One laments, “I worry that democracy’s only hope is Taylor Swift.”

Funny, yes. But also potentially prophetic. While in most election years celebrity endorsements make a minimal impact, this year could be different.

The contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is likely to be very close, with a handful of votes in a handful of states deciding the outcome. And Biden is an unusually unpopular incumbent who stirs little enthusiasm even among his core supporters. 

He needs a spark — a source of excitement — especially among younger voters who helped elect him in 2020 but are drifting into indifference. Few of them will vote for Trump. The real threat to Biden is that they will back third parties or simply stay home.  

“The youth vote, as we all know, is going to be crucial in this election,” notes Erin Heys, policy director for the University of California, Berkeley’s Institute for Young Americans. If Swift “does make an endorsement, she has the potential to sway a lot of young voters. She and other cultural influencers can do a lot to signal to young people, ‘Hey, your vote does matter’. … (A Swift endorsement) could really change the game for those people who, in the current moment, feel disillusioned with the whole political and economic system.”

Biden World might well be channeling this lyric from Swift’s song “August”: “To live for the hope of it all.”

Here’s why: Time magazine named her Person of the Year for 2023. Her Eras Tour grossed over $1 billion last year, making it the most profitable musical tour ever. Last week, she won a Grammy for album of the year for the fourth time. A Morning Consult poll found that 53 percent of Americans are fans of Swift’s music, with 16 percent calling themselves “Swifties,” or especially ardent followers. 

And there’s mounting evidence of her political clout. Last fall, when she urged her Instagram followers to register to vote, vote.org saw a surge of 35,000 registrants. In a Newsweek poll, 18 percent said they were more likely to back a candidate supported by Swift, but that rose to 3 out of 10 among younger voters.  

Her possible impact is bolstered by the changing nature of political campaigning, which increasingly takes place online. The website Exploding Topics calculates that she has a total of 534 million followers on all social media sites combined — the fourth-highest total of anyone in the world — with 280 million of them on Instagram alone. 

“Celebrity power in elections has grown because celebrity power itself has grown,” communications consultant James Haggerty said to Newsweek. “Media and social media are now the central organizing framework of many Americans’ lives. And in a world awash in messages, it’s the celebrity voices that really resonate.”

Early in her career, Swift shied away from politics, fearful that she would alienate some possible Swifties. But in 2020, she backed Biden, and a statement she made to V Magazine illuminates her priorities: “The change we need most is to elect a president who recognizes that people of color deserve to feel safe and represented, that women deserve the right to choose what happens to their bodies and that the LGBTQIA+ community deserves to be acknowledged and included.” 

Since then, the Dobbs decision that canceled a national right to abortion could only intensify her interest in the upcoming election. Republicans are already anticipating her participation, with some unhinged operatives trying to undermine her credibility by implying she’s part of a nefarious conspiracy — along with her boyfriend, Travis Kelce, a tight end with the Kansas City Chiefs — to throw the election to Biden and the Super Bowl to the Chiefs. 

Reince Priebus, who ran the Republican National Committee under Trump, derided the conspiracy theories as “a powder keg of stupidity,” and added, with some degree of wonder, “You’re talking about two of the most popular things in America right now. Taylor Swift and the NFL.”

If Swift does back Biden, she’s almost certain to enrage Trump, who has a long history of attacking powerful women who challenge his ego. His insults — from “Crooked” Hillary Clinton and “Crazy” Nancy Pelosi to “Birdbrain” Nikki Haley — show clearly the man cannot help himself. 

Taylor Swift is richer, younger and more popular than Donald Trump. Think about what he would call her, and how the Swifties would react. That particular “powder keg of stupidity” could blow up in his face. And re-elect Joe Biden.

Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.