By Christine Zhu

NC Newsline

Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to defeat former President Donald Trump in the November election but may come up short in North Carolina, according to the latest Decision Desk HQ/The Hill prediction.

The Decision Desk HQ Forecast model, relaunched Monday after a month-long pause following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, shows Harris with a 55 percent chance of winning the presidency. The previous model predicted a 56 percent chance for a Trump victory over Biden.

The model is based on a blend of the latest polling data, fundraising, and each district’s partisan lean.

In the updated version, North Carolina shifts from Lean Republican to Toss-up.

The other swing states progress in Harris’ favor as well: Michigan moves from Toss-up to Lean Democratic. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain Toss-ups, but with Harris performing better than Biden in those states.

Decision Desk HQ predicts a 64 percent chance of victory for Trump in North Carolina, compared to 36 percent for Harris. The analysis includes 10 polls conducted between February and August — two were released months prior to Biden dropping out.

Since Harris entered the race, the gap between the Democratic candidate and Trump has closed substantially. A May poll from Morning Consult/Bloomberg News had Trump up by 10 percent in North Carolina, while ones from recent weeks show Harris catching up.

The last Democratic presidential candidate to win the Tar Heel State was Barack Obama in 2008, the first to do so since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Republicans have won every federal race in North Carolina since Obama’s victory.

For the other battleground states, Decision Desk HQ predicts a Trump victory in Arizona and Georgia, but gives Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to Harris. It’s a forecast that anticipates 276 electoral votes for Harris and 262 for Trump.

Harris has strengthened Democrats’ odds in congressional elections, according to the model.

Republicans still lead in the Senate with a 67 percent chance to take the majority, but it’s closer than their earlier 78 percent chance when Biden was at the top of the ticket.

Decision Desk HQ considers the GOP to have a “fundamental advantage” in these races since Democrats are defending 23 of the 33 contested seats. Three of these elections are in states that Trump won in 2016 and 2020, while no Republican-held seats are in states won by Biden in 2020.

On the other hand, the House is a relative toss up; Decision Desk HQ predicts Republicans have a 56 percent chance of winning control of the lower chamber, compared to the previous model’s 61 percent chance.

The GOP managed to flip nine House seats in 2022, securing a narrow majority that they must defend in November. Democrats hold 213 seats, just five away from the 218 needed for control and the Speaker’s gavel.

North Carolina has 14 congressional seats that are currently split 7-7.

In the latest round of redistricting, Republicans in the state legislature redrew the map to all but assure a GOP victory in 10 districts, leaving three for Democrats. The first congressional district, represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis, is the only House seat considered competitive in North Carolina.

Christine Zhu covers state politics and government for NC Newsline. She is based in Raleigh.