By Mike London
mike.london@salisburypost.com

SALISBURY — Catawba College’s football squad heads to Wilson on Saturday to take on the Barton Bulldogs in a matchup of struggling teams with identical records.

Kickoff at Electric Supply Company Field at Truist Stadium is set for 2 p.m.

Former Catawba head coach Chip Hester, hired by Barton in July 2018 to create a competitive program from scratch, will have the Bulldogs ready to play. Second-year Catawba head coach Tyler Haines has had the Indians ready to play every Saturday, but not a lot has gone their way.

This will be the last Catawba vs. Barton matchup that will be a South Atlantic Conference tussle. Barton will begin play in Conference Carolinas next fall, forming a football league with natural eastern rivals, a league where Barton figures to have a better chance to win football games than it does in the SAC.

Catawba has arrived at 2-6 with a veritable flood of exciting losses, but they are nonetheless losses in the standings. Barton’s trip to 2-6 hasn’t been nearly as exhilarating, as it included being shut out by Lenoir-Rhyne and Wingate back-to-back.

Both teams are limping along at 1-5 in an unforgiving league. Both beat Anderson, a first-year program.

Catawba won early this season in a non-conference game against Shaw, which has proven to be a  middle-of-the-pack CIAA squad. Barton got its non-conference win in a tight scrap with Chowan.

One of the things you have to look at when teams are 2-6 is turnover margin. Not surprisingly, both are in the bottom half of Division II in that category. Barton is minus-8 in that vital stat, coughing up 16 TOs, while forcing eight. Catawba has played remarkably low turnover games, but has lost the ball nine times, while forcing only five turnovers. That’s minus-4. Not horrendous, but not helpful.

Catawba impressed everyone with its talent and tenacity at Wingate last week, but still didn’t win. Barton lost by 16 to Newberry.

Statistically, Catawba looks to be the superior team this week. Catawba’s average game has been a 34-28 loss. Barton’s average game has been a 30-14 loss. Catawba has scored about twice as many points as Barton has.

So it won’t be a shock if the Indians put it all together at Barton and win 35-14.

But the way this season has gone for Catawba, it also won’t be a shock if Barton scores on the last play of the game and wins 33-32.

The Massey Ratings see Catawba as a 1-point favorite with a 28-27 score projection. That’s what is known as a 50/50 game, a tossup.

Barton needs this win. So does Catawba. The Indians won 32-27 last season.

Catawba will finish with Lenoir-Rhyne and Mars Hill and will be serious underdogs in both games. Catawba’s win probability against L-R is going to be about 10 percent. The WP for Catawba is going to be around 30 percent against the Lions.

If you’re a Barton defensive coach you’ve been watching film this week of Catawba running back LJ Turner and wondering how in the world Catawba can possibly be 2-6. Turner has broken the school rushing record for a season. He’s third in Division II with 1,224 rushing yards and he’s also third in rushing TDs with 13. He’s been special, and those big guys in front of him who have been making the holes also deserve some flowers.

Rhode Island transfer Trevor Nored has taken most of the snaps for Barton with limited success — three TD passes, seven interceptions. Jayden Flood-Brown is a dangerous receiver for Barton with 33 catches for 458 yards. Catawba will try to shut him down.

As always, WSAT will broadcast the action.