You don’t need a crystal ball to figure out that the Rowan-Salisbury School System’s 4,400 empty seats offer more capacity than the county will need in the foreseeable future. With the growing popularity of private schools and home schooling, the public schools’ enrollment has been inching down to just over 19,000.

Rowan cannot afford to go on this way. Just as the system needs to improve student test scores, it also must make smarter use of building and maintenance funds. If the community can rise to both of these challenges, Rowan-Salisbury could emerge as a new and improved system.

To be true good stewards of taxpayers’ money — and to put resources where they’ll do students the most genuine good — the school board will have to close or consolidate as many as 11 schools over the next five years. That’s the recommendation of citizens and board members who have been studying the issue as part of a Capital Needs Committee.

The schools that have come to the fore in this process are:

• Six elementary schools: Overton, Mount Ulla, Hurley, Morgan, Granite Quarry and Faith.

• Three middle schools: China Grove, Corriher-Lipe and Knox.

• Two high schools: North Rowan and Henderson.

This list is preliminary. The committee based its recommendations on factors such as age and condition  of buildings, energy costs, capital needs, capacity and enrollment. A school’s presence on the list reflects its numbers on the criteria, not a specific plan for closing.

The public needs full transparency from the school board — and the board needs patience from parents and other citizens — as this conversation moves forward. A consultant’s 2016 report on closing schools sparked passionate opposition that made calm debate impossible. Now the subject is coming up again, this time with dozens of citizens involved in studying the situation and proposing solutions.

The Capital Needs Committee has grasped the extent of the problem. Excess capacity in the system’s 35 schools means extra space to heat, cool and maintain — with money that is sorely needed elsewhere.

It’s human nature to resist change, especially if the school your family loves is part of that change. It’s also common practice to ignore a news story unless and until it directly affects you. Months from now when closing plans become more concrete, someone will accuse the school board of developing this plan in secret. If you’re concerned, plug in sooner rather than later.   

Be forewarned. Redistricting must inevitably be part of the process, too.

The merger of Cleveland and Woodleaf elementary schools may be the prototype for the closing and consolidation plan. Two communities are losing old schools their families have attended for generations. At the same time, they’re gaining a new school building better suited to the needs of today’s students. It’s a trade-off — a trade-off with an eye toward the future.