By Mark Wineka
mwineka@salisburypost.com
Voters who went straight-ticket Democratic played a big role in propelling state Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro to her upset victory Tuesday over incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole.
Dr. Michael Bitzer, associate professor of political science at Catawba College, did some post-election analysis of the numbers Wednesday and said if you pull out those who voted straight ticket for Democrats in North Carolina, Hagan’s 52-44 percent margin of victory would become a 51-49 percent win for Dole.
Early voters, part of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s grass-roots effort to get people registered and to the polls, heavily favored Hagan in the state.
Hagan led among these one-stop absentee voters by a 57 percent to 43 percent spread. On Election Day, Hagan outpolled Dole by only 52 percent to 48 percent, Bitzer said.
In the end, Dole lost her seat mostly because of “the Obama factor” and his campaign’s “tidal wave of organization,” which helped other Democratic candidates in statewide races, Bitzer said.
The lateness of the N.C. Democratic Primary gave Obama time to organize and focus his resources to defeat Hillary Clinton first, then establish himself for the general election campaign, Bitzer said.
“The organization and the straight tickets were just too high a hurdle for any Republican to get over,” he added.
Other elements factored into the Dole defeat, of course. Bitzer said exit polls showed 61 percent of N.C. voters identified the economy as their biggest issue or concern.
Illegal immigration ó an issue the Dole campaign had anticipated would be at the forefront of voters’ minds ó “didn’t even make the list,” Bitzer said.
Voters linked the sour economy to incumbents and the Republican Bush administration. Hagan continually tried to depict Dole as a rubber stamp for Bush and an absentee senator.
“We don’t know to what extent the charges of absenteeism really had an impact,” Bitzer said.
Bitzer considers Hagan’s win a major upset in N.C. political history, given Dole’s impressive 40-year resume, name recognition and the fact that her seat had been in Republican hands since Jesse Helms was elected for the first time in 1972.
Did the controversial “Godless Americans” television advertisements have any impact on the Hagan-Dole race?
Bitzer thinks they did, if one can trust the exit polls. Those exit polls Tuesday showed white evangelicals favoring Dole by a 66-30 percent margin. But non-evangelicals ó “mainline Christian denominations” ó and others favored Hagan by 68-26 percent.
Non-evangelicals represented 52 to 53 percent of the people voting, and political observers have theorized it was that group turned off by Dole’s linking Hagan to the “Godless Americans” political action committee.
“It appealed to a certain base,” Bitzer said of the ads, “but I don’t see why she needed to rally those troops and alienate the people in the middle or the swing votes.”
Another surprising number in the exit polls was among women voters. They favored Hagan 55 percent to 40 percent.
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The unofficial totals in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race had Hagan with 2,216,440 votes (52.6 percent) to Dole’s 1,862,185 (44.2 percent).
Libertarian Christopher Cole of Huntersville captured 131,623 votes, while there were 1,791 write-ins.
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Chad Mitchell, a veteran of campaigns for school board, U.S. Congress and county commissioner, said Dole may have been a victim of the anti-incumbency and anti-Republican sentiment.
“I don’t know if the Dole race was more anti-incumbency or if she had created a mini-issue of her representation of North Carolina in the U.S. Senate,” Mitchell said. “Many claimed she didn’t live in North Carolina.
“Before September, no one thought Hagan had a chance … then the Dole campaign fell apart.
“The Godless American ad was the final spike. If the campaign felt they needed to stoop to that level, they were obviously worried.”nnn
A look at the precinct-by-precinct vote Tuesday in Rowan County showed Republican John McCain dominating in the presidential race and Dole, a Salisbury native, doing the same in the U.S. Senate race.
McCain outpolled Obama by 14,012 votes in Rowan and won at 39 of the 44 voting precincts.
Obama carried only the East Spencer, West Ward I (Rowan Public Library), South Ward (Salisbury Civic Center), East Ward (Park Avenue Community Center) and West Ward III (Miller Recreation Center).
As testimony to the efforts by Obama supporters and the Democratic Party to encourage early voting, Obama led McCain by a 5,159-3,754 margin among people who voted before Tuesday at the Rowan County Board of Elections Office.
Also, Obama handily outpolled McCain among early voters at the Rowan Public Library headquarters in Salisbury, leading the Republican by a 5,336-4,053 margin.
McCain was favored at the South, East and West early voting locations. Early voters at the South Rowan Public Library favored McCain by a big 5,474-2,262 spread.
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Dole, who topped Hagan by 7,159 votes in Rowan, led in 36 of the county’s 44 precincts.
Hagan outpolled Dole in Blackwelder Park, East Spencer, Spencer, West Ward I, South Ward, East Ward, Milford Hills City and West Ward III.
As has happened in past elections, Dole failed to carry her home precinct of West Ward I, which votes at Rowan Public Library. Hagan led there on Election Day 147-96.
Hagan benefited greatly in Rowan from the early voting at the Rowan County Board of Elections office and the Rowan Public Library in Salisbury. At the Elections Office, Hagan led Dole 5,260 to 3,414.
Among early voters at the Salisbury library, Hagan led Dole by 5,494 to 3,661.
Otherwise, Dole led Hagan at the South, East and West early voting locations.
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Patricia Howell, an Obama supporter who worked at the East Spencer precinct all day Tuesday, said she liked Obama’s composure throughout the long presidential campaign.
And she described Obama’s grass-roots organization as “a well-oiled machine.”
“I’ve never seen people pull together like this,” Howell said Tuesday night at the celebration party in Salisbury for Obama’s victory.
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Donna Peeler, long involved with the N.C. Federation of Republican Women and a loyal Dole supporter in Rowan County, said it was “the Obama factor” and the millions of dollars that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee poured into the U.S. Senate race that ended up defeating Dole.
“We’ve lost the best thing North Carolina has ever had,” Peeler said of Dole’s losing her seat.
Peeler spent some time visiting various Rowan voting precincts with Dole Tuesday.
“So many people thanked her for what she had done for them (as constituents),” Peeler said.
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Melanie Earle, another Dole supporter, said Tuesday’s result wasn’t so much a loss for Dole as it was a loss for the state and nation.
Earle liked Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and voted for the McCain-Palin ticket, but she was lukewarm on McCain.
She described him as the lesser of two evils, and said she had supported Ron Paul in the primary.