SALISBURY — The Jan. 18 Rowan Chamber of Commerce Power in Partnership breakfast at Trinity Oaks had Dr. Laura Ullrich, a senior regional economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, discuss the “economic outlook” in 2024 for chamber members in attendance.

Based in Charlotte, Ullrich describes herself as a “boots-on-the-ground economist for North and South Carolina” where she goes out in the field for her research that encompasses labor trends and higher education. 

Ullrich said the U.S. economy in 2023 was “very strong” and performed much better than many economists believed it would thanks to the “strength of consumer spending.” Still, Ullrich made a point to stress that the commercial real estate market is struggling and inflation is hurting those who are living paycheck to paycheck.

Cities like Charlotte, Raleigh and Charleston have thrived economically compared to other parts of the country because people are migrating here from both urban and rural areas. 

“A lot of this is based on industry and geography. If you look at the places that have done well, they typically have an industrial mix that’s growing and they’re in a geography where logistics and transportation have become so important. You’ve got to be located somewhere where it is easy to get goods and services and people from point A to point B,” Ullrich said.

Ullrich also mentioned that inflation is above the 2 percent average target.

“If you would have told me we would be at this point at the beginning of last year, I would’ve thought that would be a really good year,” Ullrich said.

The supply chain concerns that arose during the pandemic have leveled off recently according to Ullrich. However, “geopolitical issues” are one of the main reasons there are shortages in specific industries. 

“It is now cheaper to get a ship from China to the U.S. than it was before COVID,” Ullrich said. 

In the past few years, people and companies have been moving out of metro areas, causing Rowan County to do better than Charlotte and the rest of the state in employment growth. 

“Part of it, too, is due to available land. There’s not a whole lot of available land to build a house or open a business in Mecklenburg County,” Ullrich said. 

Ullrich explains that worker demand is currently greater than the labor force in N.C. based on women having fewer children and it will only get worse going forward. She goes on to say high interest rates “have returned back to normal.” 

Overall, Ullrich is hopeful for the economy in the new year.

“For 2024, we’re going to see a continuation of what we saw in 2023, which was continued growth in consumer spending,” Ullrich said. “I do think we will see some slowdown though. I don’t think it will necessarily be a slowdown that will be a recession…There’s nothing out there right now that tells me that this area is not going to continue to see economic growth.”