By Catawba college

According to a survey conducted by Catawba College and YouGov, 75 percent of North Carolinians are “very” or “somewhat” confident that their vote will be accurately counted in their county in 2024’s general election, while 71 percent are ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ confident in the integrity of the 2024 election in North Carolina.But respondents are concerned about voters’ safety in casting their ballots: 48 percent said they were (very or somewhat) concerned in the safety of North Carolina voters casting ballots, compared to 49 percent who said they were not concerned.

 The survey of 1,000 North Carolinians was administered from Aug. 7 to 20, 2024, for the independent cross-partisan Commission on the Future of North Carolina Elections about confidence and concerns regarding the 2024 election and the administration of safe, secure, and fair elections in the state. The survey’s margin of error (adjusted for weights) is +/- 3.87 percent.

“It’s reassuring that a significant majority of North Carolinians are confident that their vote, the key act of participating in our democratic republic, will be counted accurately and with confidence in the integrity of our state’s election system,” said Dr. Michael Bitzer, professor of politics and history and director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service at Catawba College, who serves on the commission’s steering committee. “We hope that the concerns about their safety in casting ballots won’t deter fellow North Carolinians from being engaged and involved in this upcoming election,” Bitzer added.

“This poll confirms what we have seen in numerous election town halls that we have conducted across NC: voters do trust the election procedures and officials closest to them in their local counties, where the poll workers are their friends and neighbors,” said Jennifer Roberts, former mayor of Charlotte and N.C. Elections Commission steering committee member. “We hope this will lead every North Carolinian to trust that their ballot will count and to vote with confidence in November.”

This is the first of three releases of the survey; future releases will focus on North Carolinians’ attitudes regarding their knowledge and awareness of North Carolina’s election-related activities, along with their attitudes towards certain election policies in North Carolina.

Along with clear partisan differences in responses, one noticeable trend is that North Carolinians express higher levels of confidence in elections administered closer to home. While 75 percent of North Carolinians are somewhat or very confident that votes will be counted accurately in their county, and 71 percent are somewhat or very confident that other North Carolinians’ votes outside their county will be counted accurately, that number dropped to 61 percent when asked about votes outside of North Carolina. Fully one third indicate that they were not confident in the vote counting accuracy of other states.

Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University and a steering committee member on the N.C. Elections Commission, noted that “Trusting the government closest to you is consistent with what we see in other parts of government. For example, political scientists have long demonstrated that people tend to trust their member of Congress much more than they trust the institution of Congress as a whole. Proximity breeds trust — and this is certainly true when it comes to perceptions of elections in North Carolina.”

Bob Orr, former associate justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court and N.C. Elections Commission steering committee member, notes that “It was good to see this poll confirm that the overwhelming majority of North Carolinians believe in that basic tenet of democracy, requiring those who lose a certified election to accept the results.”

In addition to questions on confidence and concerns, two questions regarding North Carolina’s absentee by mail ballots, which N.C. county boards of elections will begin to mail on Friday, Sept. 6, to eligible voters who requested one for 2024’s general election, are included in this release.

Respondents’ Partisan Self-Identification:

• When asked about election integrity in North Carolina, 83 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of Independents, and 63 percent of Republicans expressed confidence.

          • However, one-third of Republicans are not confident in the integrity of N.C.’s elections. 

• Regarding North Carolinians’ perceptions of safety in casting ballots in 2024, bare majorities of partisans express that they are concerned with the safety of voting. Yet only 41 percent of Independents were concerned — with 55 percent of independents saying they were not concerned in the safety of voters casting ballots. 

• When asked about the accuracy of vote counting in 2024, partisan differences among North Carolinians exist:

      • 89 percent of Democrats have confidence in their county accurately counting their vote

      • Two-thirds (66) of Republicans expressed confidence

     • Seventy (70) percent of Independents have confidence in their county counting their vote accurately. 

• When asked if “other North Carolinian’s votes beyond your county will be accurately counted in 2024,” 86 percent of Democrats said they were confident, while two-thirds of Independents (67) and 63 percent of Republicans said the same. 

• 53 percent of Republicans were not confident when asked about “votes outside of North Carolina will be accurately counted in 2024.” Only 42 percent of Republicans responded as being confident.

    • Only 15 percent of Democrats expressed a lack of confidence, while 83 percent had confidence.

    • Among Independents, 30 percent expressed a lack of confidence, while 62 percent expressed confidence in the accuracy of vote counting outside the state. 

• 84 percent of North Carolinians said it was important that “the losing candidates publicly accept the winning candidates as the legitimate winners in North Carolina,” while 16 percent said it was not important.

    • 94 percent of Democrats, 82 percent of Independents, and 79 percent of Republicans said it was important. 

Respondents’ race

• In general, self-identified White North Carolinians are less likely to believe that their vote was accurately counted in the 2020 election (78 percent very or somewhat confident among whites versus 90 percent among Blacks.

• Looking forward, however, self-identified Whites are roughly as likely as self-identified Blacks to believe the votes will be accurately counted in their county in 2024. 

• White and Black North Carolinians have similar attitudes towards levels of confidence in poll workers, election administration, and the N.C. State Board of Elections. 

• Black North Carolinians have more confidence than White North Carolinians that a variety of activities are prevented — including multiple voting, vote steals, impersonations, non-US Citizens voting, voter fraud, vote count manipulation, software counting manipulation, vote buying, and fraudulent voter registrations. 

• In terms of confidence in the overall integrity of elections in North Carolina, there is no difference between Whites and Blacks (roughly 72 percent of both races are very or somewhat confident in the integrity of NC’s elections). 

Respondents’ educational level

In recent years, there has been an increasing difference between college educated voters and non-college educated voters across a host of different issues. These results suggest that the “diploma divide” extends to perceptions of confidence and concerns about elections in North Carolina.

• Respondents with a college degree express more confidence in the accurate counting of votes in the 2020 and the 2024 elections than respondents with a high school degree or who never completed high school.

• The same general pattern (people with college degrees having more confidence) extends to attitudes towards mail voting, poll workers, county election administration officials, and the N.C. State Board of Elections. 

• People with college degrees also have much more confidence that various kinds of fraud (double-voting, vote tampering, impersonation, non-U.S. citizens voting, vote buying, multiple ballot submissions) are prevented than North Carolinians who don’t have a college degree or never completed high school. 

Respondent’s age

• Younger voters (18-35 years old) tend to be more confident (68 percent) in votes outside of North Carolina being accurately counted.

• Voters 66 years old and up generally have the greatest percentage of confidence (78 percent) in their local election administration, but have the greatest lack of confidence (42 percent) in votes outside of North Carolina being accurately counted in 2024. 

Absentee by mail confidence and support

With North Carolina counties mailing out absentee by mail ballots starting on Sept. 6, two questions gauged North Carolina public opinion regarding this vote method: 

• Not surprisingly, 62 percent of Republicans have the greatest lack of confidence in absentee by mail as being a “secure way to cast a ballot in North Carolina.”

    • Compared to only 13 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of Independents who lack confidence.

• Nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of those with college degrees or higher have confidence that absentee by mail voting is a secure way to cast a ballot. In comparison, only 51 percent of no high school degree/high school degree have confidence in that vote method.

• Partisan differences are also evident among respondents when asked about their confidence in absentee by mail voting as providing “equitable access to voting for all eligible voters in North Carolina.”

    • 55 percent of self-identified Republicans expressed no confidence

    • Compared to 87 percent of self-identified Democrats who expressed confidence

    • And 59 percent of self-identified Independents expressed confidence.

• Younger respondents (18-35 years old) have the greatest percentage of those who are confident in absentee by mail providing equitable access to casting a ballot (69 percent). Slightly over one-third of older age groups (36 years old and above) are not confident in mail-in voting as an equitable venue for voting.

This first appeared on NC Spin.