This seasonís rash of killer tornadoes is likely to be grist for scientific research for years to come as weather and climate experts try to figure out what spawned so many giant, violent twisters.
But some of the toughest questions wonít focus on patterns in the natural world, but human nature.
Contemplating a tornado like the ěsuper cellî that struck Joplin, Mo., the issue is not so much why so many people died, but how so many people lived through a three-quarter-mile-wide vortex packing winds estimated in excess of 200 miles an hour.
Some answers may come from a ěservice assessmentî being done by the National Weather Service over the coming months, which will look at how well forecasters did at issuing warnings for the storm as well as how thoroughly those warnings were passed along and heeded.
Thereís continuing concern among forecasters and emergency managers that even as the technology to predict and alert residents to severe storms improves, people remain confused or jaded about how to react. They try to drive through floods, they try to ride out hurricanes and they hesitate to act on urgent warnings to take shelter.
Joplin had 24 minutes of advance warning from radar imaging by local forecasters that a tornado was coming, according to NWS director Jack Hayes. That was enough time for many to take cover, yet scores seem to have been caught outdoors or in vehicles when the winds came.
The warnings went out every way possible, from sirens to broadcast to Internet and iPhone apps. Still, there may have been confusion. An after-action report on the Motherís Day 2008 twister that hit just outside Joplin, killing 13, pointed out that the Weather Serviceís county-level warnings often did not match local landmarks or other anticipated points the storm would pass.
The warning sirens used in many areas are often out of sync with the geographic warning boxes used by forecasters. One NWS study a few years ago concluded that as many as 75 percent of siren alerts for tornadoes are false alarms, prompting residents to ignore them or seek confirmation of a twister from other sources.
Then thereís the basement gap.
A lot of homes and businesses simply donít have a good place to shelter, particularly from the most violent winds. Yet the stories of survival in bathtubs, under mattresses and inside convenience-store coolers show that itís possible to improvise. Researchers need to take measure of how people perceived the threat, how they reacted and what parts of structures stood and what fell in hopes of offering better guidance and better odds against future funnel clouds.
ó Scripps Howard News Service